best body piercing jewelry wholesale suppliers How is the financial bubble formed

wholesale ginger snap jewelry Regarding the financial system, there are many errors, misunderstandings, and misunderstandings. During the formation of super bubbles, the assumptions that many mainstream economic theories are established are far from reality. I did not follow these assumptions, but interpreted the financial market from another angle. In fact, my conceptual framework is not about the financial market. It discusses a basic philosophical problem, that is, the relationship between thinking and reality.
I think there is a two -way connection between thinking and reality. On the one hand, thinking trying to understand the reality, I call the cognitive function of thinking. On the other hand, thinking attempts to influence reality, I call the control function of thinking. When the two functions play a role at the same time, a circular relationship, or feedback circuit is formed. I call this loop "anti -personality."
The anti -body nature has a certain interference effect on both functions. If there is no reverse, there is only one independent variable in each function, that is, in the cognitive function, reality is independent variables. The changes in reality determine the thinking and views of market participants. In the control function The change of thinking determines the actions that market participants will take. When the two functions work at the same time, neither of the two, because thinking and reality will affect each other, which brings us a lot of uncertain factors to judge the thinking of market participants and the actual dynamics of the market. These uncertain factors have caused deviation between the thinking of market participants and actual dynamics, and there is also lack of consistency between market participants' intentions and final results.
It one thing should be emphasized that anti -body nature is not the only source of uncertainty. Other factors will also cause market participants to be unable to fully understand the real dynamics. This is "incomplete knowledge." Reflectiveness is closely related to "incomplete knowledge" and human "errors". From a logical perspective, the harm of errors is greater than the harm of incomplete knowledge. If people have a comprehensive and accurate understanding of reality before taking action, their ideas will fully fit the reality, and the anti -body nature will not become the root cause of uncertainties. Determination will not bring uncertainty to reality dynamics.
In general, people recognize the existence of errors, but the reflection does not get the attention they deserve. For each function, people try to pursue perfection, often tend to ignore or eliminate the root cause of uncertainty.
Economists try to compare their theories to Newtonian physics theory. I think this type of ratio is wrong, because the object of Newton's research is natural phenomenon, and the occurrence of natural phenomena is completely independent of people's ideas. Do not transfer people's will; and the research objects of economics are economic phenomena, and the evolution of economic phenomena is not independent of people's will, and market participants have their thinking ability, and their thinking will affect the economic phenomenon Essence
Is when I use the financial market to test my thoughts correctly, I form my own financial bubble theory on the basis of the two assumptions of error -prone and reflected. In my opinion, each bubble consists of two elements: one is a trend in the real world, and the other is people's misunderstanding of this trend. From formation to rupture is a process. If a new trend appears in the market, it may be spawned by a certain technological innovation, or it may be caused by financial factors. At first, this trend may occur quietly without causing people's attention. When market participants noticed this trend, they might be very interested, which led to this trend stronger and stronger, and they would definitely misunderstand this trend. This trend may be interfered and temporarily interrupted, which constitutes challenges and tests for whether people will insist on misunderstanding. If people see the previous misunderstandings, this bubble will not deteriorate. However, if the misunderstanding before the test and verification is reasonable, the misunderstanding will be further strengthened. As the foam gradually expands, market participants will find that their thinking is far from the actual situation. When the number of suspects exceeds the number of believers, misunderstandings are difficult to succeed. In the later stage of the bubble expansion, the market trend will continue for a period of time due to inertia. Even so, the market trend will definitely reverse at a certain moment. Due to the increasing questioning of the market, the original trend will be reversed rapidly and constantly changes in the opposite direction before. Because this process often involves a certain form of credit or leverage, the change of the foam is inconsistent, that is, the increase rate is slow, and the fall rate is fast until the collapse. In the process of foam formation and rupture, the order of each stage is certain, and it is uncertain. The scale and duration of the foam are unpredictable, and the foam may break at any stage.
The feedback ring circuits at any time point, but all the feedback loops can be divided into two categories: positive feedback ring and negative feedback ring circuit. The positive feedback ring has strengthened the current prevailing misunderstanding, and the negative feedback ring has played a role of reversing. In most cases, these two feedback loops offset each other. Only in a few cases, the role of the positive feedback ring will exceed the negative feedback ring circuit, which will produce foam, but once this happens, this foam has certain historical significance.
The situation is that the negative feedback ring occupies the upper hand. In this way, the idea of ​​market participants will tend to approach objective reality. This situation can be called "balancing".
The financial market is a very good test field, which is not only conducive to the situation where the inspection tends to be balanced, but also conducive to testing the departure balance. However, the actual situation will not exactly the two situations: deviation or balance. Most of the actual situation is intricate, and the positive feedback ring and negative feedback ring circuit interweave each other, leading to the ups and downs of market trends.
Because the bubble brings inherent instability to the financial market, multiple financial crisis broke out in the development of the financial market. Each crisis will lead to some measures in government departments. The central banks and financial regulatory agencies are closely related to the development of the financial market itself. Therefore, not only one invisible hand is guided by the market, but also to a large extent, it is also subject to the "visible hand" of politics.
The bubbles only occur intermittently, but the interaction between market and politics has never stopped. Regardless of market participants or financial regulatory agencies, the basis for decision -making is incomplete knowledge, that is, they are not comprehensive or accurate to their understanding of the actual situation before taking action. This makes them interactive. Therefore, when interpreting the financial market, we must consider the impact of anti -personality, not just considering the anti -personality when deviating equilibrium. (George Soros is taken from the preface of this book)

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